Geospatial analysis of cyclist injury trends: an investigation in Melbourne, Australia.

OBJECTIVE This study applied geospatial analysis to explore spatial trends in cycling-related injury in Melbourne, Australia, in order to identify an area where injury density was reducing against expectation. The crash characteristics and cycling environment of the identified area were examined to better understand factors related to cycling safety. METHOD Two methods were used to examine spatial trends in cycling-related injury. Firstly, cycling injury density was calculated using a kernel density estimation method for the years 2000 to 2011. This was used to examine patterns in injury density across Melbourne over an extended time period. Secondly, absolute change in injury density was calculated between 2005 and 2011. From this, a geographical area presenting a reduced injury density was selected for a case study, and crash characteristics of the area were obtained for the observational period. This led to discussion on which changes to the cycling environment, if any, may be associated with the reduced injury rate. RESULTS Injury density in Melbourne had been progressively increasing between 2000 and 2011, with a nearly 3-fold increase in the peak injury density over that period. Decreases were observed in some locations between 2005 and 2011, and a geographical area to the southeast of Melbourne experienced a more significant decrease than others. This appeared to be associated with a combination of behavior and road infrastructure change, although a lack of data to verify change in cycling exposure prevented more definitive associations from being established. CONCLUSION The apparent positive response of the injury rate to behavior and road infrastructure interventions is promising, yet the injury rate is unlikely to achieve the government's road safety target of 30% reduction in serious injuries by 2022. Moreover, the number of injuries sustained at the most common crash location appears to be increasing. Further research is necessary to discern which specific features of the urban road infrastructure have an effect on the risk of injury to a cyclist and which combination of features is consistent with a safe cycling environment.